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Cairo Times, Egypt, 10-08-2000
Flaming protests by Djibouti diplomats and Somali citizens that Egypt is working against the ongoing Somali National Peace Conference have somewhat quieted down. But it's still unclear what actually happened, and questions remain about Egypt's role and interests. Martin Stolk reports.
Rumors that Egyptian envoy Salah Abdurizak Halim actively discouraged two of Somalia's top warlords from attending the country's ongoing peace conference exploded into anti-Egyptian protests in Mogadishu and other towns. Somali protestors burned Egyptian flags, and delegates at the reconciliation conference taking place at Arta, Djibouti organized a protest meeting to demand Halim's expulsion, Radio Djibouti reported on 24 July.
During a visit to some of the main warlords in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, Halim allegedly conveyed them Egypt’s wish that they boycott the conference. Following that visit, warlords Hussein Aideed and Osman Ali Ato, who had earlier said they would come to Arta, suddenly retracted their promise.
Halim later denied the accusations and Egypt’s Foreign Minister Amr Moussa reiterated his country’s support for the conference. Moussa said that if certain Somali leaders thought Egypt’s position different, it was a misunderstanding on their part. According to AFP, Moussa instead put the blame on meddlers "who are not working for the good of Somalia, nor for the good of Arab-African relations or Egypt's relations with Djibouti and Somalia." He added that: "We are following the activities of certain elements who are operating negatively in obscurity, and whose game could have negative consequences."
In 1998, Egypt brokered Mogadishu’s Benadir administration, which united Hussein Aideed and his rival Ali Mahdi Mohammed as co-chairmen. At first, hopes for the administration were high with Aideed promising everything from restoration of Mogadishu’s infrastructure to elections. But it appears to have become another dead letter agreement. There have been no significant positive developments in the city over the last year. In fact, this month the security situation again deteriorated. Inter-clan skirmishes are now almost daily events and two aidworkers of the French NGO Action Contre le Faim as well as the chairman of the Yemeni community in Somalia, Hussein Salim Ahmed, have been kidnapped in the past two weeks.
Egypt’s official position has always been supportive of the Djibouti initiative. Like Libya, Egypt is known to support the Mogadishu factions. And again like Libya, it has threatened to cancel this friendship if the warlords would not go to Arta. But contrary to Moussa’s intentions, his remarks have made the issue even more mysterious. Now there is not only Halim’s secretive visit, of which there have been no independent reports, but also the involvement of the sinister ‘obscure elements’.
In Egypt’s political dictionary, ‘elements’ classically refers to anyone who the regime perceives as a threat against the political status quo, but especially Muslim fundamentalists. In Somalia, the main fundamentalists active are the Osama bin Laden sponsored group Al-Ittihaad Al-Islami - anti-Ethiopian guerillas, who also operate from Sudan and Kenya. If Moussa referred to them however, Egypt should oppose the Djibouti conference, as several Ittihaad members are in attendance.
More significantly, Moussa’s ‘elements’ could also mean Ethiopia. The row almost coincided with the Khartoum conference of Council of Ministers of the Nile Basin countries aimed at an equitable utilization of the river. This spring, Ethiopia and Sudan pooled together to revitalize the Ethiopia-Sudan Water Resources Technical Advisory Committee (ESTAC). Both countries have repeatedly complained about the amount of Nile water Egypt claims, and wish to negotiate new quotas.
Ethiopia has managed to establish an unrivaled presence at the Somali peace conference. Puntland and Somaliland – both Ethiopia sponsored breakaway territories– still refuse to cooperate. But its major influence in southern Somalia, the Rahaweini Resistance Army (RRA), did manage to get extra seats in the now almost complete Transitional National Assembly (TNA) – making the RRA the single biggest power bloc in the TNA. On top of that, RRA’s operational center Baidoa has been named temporary capital until Mogadishu's shattered infrastructure can be repaired.
With a semi-stable Somali assembly that is willing to listen to Ethiopia and the installation of a peacekeeping force on the border with their northern neighbor Eritrea, the country will have taken care of most of its' external security concerns. And so can turn its attention to the Nile water issue, something that is not in Egypt’s interest.
While attendants at the conference remain hopeful, its end-stages show few positive developments. The decision to give the RRA more assembly seats is the first transgression of the conference’s philosophy that there would be no special status for warlords. Observers claimed it was a compromise ‘for the sake of realism’, but the move seriously diminishes the credibility of the conference as well as the chances that rival warlords – whether present in Arta or not - will accept the conference’s outcome. Already some warlords returned home after not being nominated for the TNA.
It is now certain northern Somalia’s regional administrations in Somaliland and Puntland will not accept the TNA’s authority. Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf of Puntland said people coming home from Arta would face criminal procedures. The NGO Somaliland Forum claims there is actually a war looming between Somaliland and Djibouti over the latter’s insistence on treating Somalia as one entity. Somaliland says that having lived under British colonial rule has given its people a distinct feeling of nationality.
Mogadishu warlord Hussein Aideed also repeated his decision not to attend the conference and threatened renewed fighting. In a letter published in the Somali newspaper Qaran, Aideed hurled accusations at Djibouti, writing that the country was not neutral and gave space to Somalis who had worked with the ousted dictator Mohammed Siad Barre. At the same time, Aideed asked whether the National Charter and TNA allotments could still be changed. Aideed's demands are unlikely to be met, since the conference has been going on for over three months now, and reopening prior decisions for debate would practically mean restarting the process.